Megatrends i Brasilien
Fortolkning i forhold til fremtidens arbejdsmarked og forbrugere
Af fremtidsforsker Anne-Marie Dahl, Futuria
Hvordan kan man fortolke de vigtigste megatrends i forhold til en meget stor økonomi som den brasilianske? Er det de samme tendenser som i Vesteuropa eller er der for store økonomiske og kulturelle forskelle til, at det giver mening? Som fremtidsforsker er det altid, men især på udebane vigtigt at have både ydmyghed og tvivl med i værkstøjskassen.
Selvom Brasilien har stor økonomisk og social ulighed, og især efter finanskrisen store økonomiske udfordringer, gav det god mening at fortolke megatrends i forhold til henholdsvis fremtidens forbrugere og fremtidens arbejdsmarked i oplæg for Nivea Brasil og på Wired Festival Brasil. Det var de samme spørgsmål og kommentarer, som kunne være stillet i dansk sammenhæng.
Det særligt interessante ved megatrends er da også, at de er så overordnede og langsigtede, at de formentlig påvirker alle lande - dog med forskellige styrke alt efter den økonomiske virkelighed og kulturelle kontekst. Når det handler om globalisering og digitalisering er det til at forstå, mens megatrends som individualisering og overgang til et følelsessamfund måske er mere forbløffende. Samtidig er det interessant, at bæredygtighed og stressproblematikker også har stor fokus i Brasilien.
I forbindelse med Wired festival Brasil blev jeg interviewet til en lang række medier med blandt andet følgende vinkler:
In your words, what is futurism?
I prefer to use the term “future science” instead of “futurism” to avoid misunderstandings.
Future science is part of the social science family, and is very closely connected to sociology when it comes to theories and methods. To become a futurist, I believe you have to have an educational background in political science, technology, sociology etc.
Future science is an attempt to predict challenges in the future, but of course looking into the future, you can´t prove anything at all! As a futurist you look at strong tendencies – megatrends – how they will affect people and society in the future. And you combine megatrends and possible counter tendencies in scenario processes to create a strategic discussion about the future. I have worked in very different companies and governments and I believe scenario planning is a very useful tool for most companies.
How can it be used to guide us in preparing for the challenges to come?
Looking at megatrends like globalization, individualization, digitalization etc. you can discuss how these megatrends will affect the labor market, consumers, families etc. and have a strategic discussion about the possible effects. You don’t know exactly what is going to happen but your mind and plans will be prepared.
What are the main macro-trends of technology?
I am not a specialist in technology but rather in how new technologies affect human beings and whether we will accept new technologies. It will be possible for example to create new types of food using technology but will we accept artificial meat? I think the psychological aspects are very important when it comes to technology.
How is it possible to be a more global and more individual society at the same time?
In a global digital world, you can be inspired of tendencies from all over the world, picking and choosing whatever you like, develop you own unique lifestyle and through the social media show everybody how special you are.
Of course, globalization also means you can find the same shops/brands in almost every big city in the world, so in this sense people all over the world wear the same dress like for example Havaianas, but still each individual can create exactly his or her special lifestyles and expression at the social media.
How do you see social medias in the future? In Brazil, for example, they influenced even the presidential election.
Social media will be a big thing also in the future. From a democratic point of view this is a challenge. Looking at it in a positive way more people get access to express their opinions and meet people from all over the world in a discussion. The more negative aspects are that we lack real discussion just “liking” without reading the posts and fake news is a real challenge.
In your lecture at the Wired Festival Brazil, you talk about emotional society. How would you define it?
In the industrial society the most important thing was strong mussels to be able to work hard at the factories. The main products were psychical products.
In the information society machinery took over and people went to work in offices and shops using their brain and it was important to be rational. The companies started to develop rational solutions for the consumers.
In the future we will work with innovation and creativity and you have to use your special emotional human skills, your heart. And companies have already started to create more emotional products buy adding a story to the product. This is the experience economy.
For the companies this also means you have to handle more emotional workers and if the working conditions and leadership isn´t nice the employees will get stressed or leave the company. Young people are brought up in a much more emotional society and they expect to have fun and develop themselves as a unique person at the workspace.